Iran and Iraq: Opportunities for convergence and future prospects

According to Ashura News, citing Mehr News Agency, the bilateral relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Iraq, as two neighboring countries with numerous religious, cultural and geographical similarities, go back many years and have created a favorable environment for the increasing development of relations between the two countries. These relations are not limited to the contemporary and post-Saddam era, but rather historical, religious, economic and geographical similarities have practically linked the two nations and created deep relations at all levels between them.

In the post-Saddam era, Tehran is considered one of the most important players in the Iraqi political scene and a supporter of the political stability process in this country, and the parties are trying to use these good bilateral relations to strengthen regional stability and reduce common threats such as terrorism and foreign interference.

Opportunities Awaiting Will

The two countries of Iran and Iraq have several elements of convergence based on the following components:

1. Economic exchanges: The volume of trade exchange between the two countries reached about $13 billion in 2023, and Iraq continues to rank first in Iran's non-oil exports, which has the potential to increase to more than $20 billion per year.

2. An interconnected society: People-to-people relations in social layers are one of the most important elements in the development of relations between the two countries. In 2024, more than 4 million Iranians entered Iraq to visit the Holy Shrine, and in return, 2.7 million Iraqi citizens entered our country for tourism and pilgrimage purposes; a figure that accounts for nearly 47 percent of all foreign tourists.

3. Students and universities: Currently, more than 90,000 Iraqi students are studying in Iran, accounting for a large part of international students in Iran, and four major Iranian universities have also established branches in Iraq. These academic relations are not only a prelude to strengthening Iran’s public diplomacy in Iraq, but also promote the cultural values ​​of Iranian society and the ideals of the Islamic Revolution among the Iraqi elite. This figure has the potential to expand to 150,000 students.

4. False dichotomies: Unlike the existing credit dichotomies in the region, such as Shia and Sunni or political and non-political Islam, the foreign policies of the countries in the region should actually be divided into two fundamental types: a- A policy focused on opportunities for regional convergence b- A policy focused on the presence, intervention, and assistance of foreign powers based in the region. In these circumstances, adopting an endogenous and independent policy by Iran and Iraq in the regional and international political arena can contribute to the increasing convergence of the two countries and their regional convergence.

5. Reconstruction megaproject: Following the victory over ISIS and the strengthening of political and security stability in Iraq and the improvement of economic conditions affected by the increase in oil exports, Baghdad has sought to rebuild infrastructure and improve the living conditions of citizens. Given Iran's valuable experience in the reconstruction process after the imposed war and the high capacity and desirable quality of Iran's domestic industries, our country will be able to play a positive role in this direction.

Convergence of Iran and Iraq in regulating relations between the parties

In the years after ISIS, Iraq has emerged from the process of instability and taken steps towards stabilizing its regional position. In order to reduce tensions and enhance regional security, it has played the role of an intermediary between Iran and Arab countries. In this framework, Iraq not only hosted several rounds of talks on normalizing relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, but also began to convey the message between Iran and Western powers.

This activism implies the message that Iraq, instead of becoming a center of conflicts, is capable of playing a mediating role in regional and international conflicts. Continuing to play the aforementioned role requires the continuation of Iraq's independent policy towards the great powers.

State-centered strategic security cooperation

Since the 1990s and then in 2003, the West Asian region has become a center of intervention and presence of transregional powers, especially the United States, and Washington has tried to expand its security and political influence in this country by occupying Iraq and pursuing its interests through this channel. In the current situation, Tehran and Baghdad are able to act as a "buffer zone" for each other, repel threats against another entity, and prevent the spread of terrorism in the region. The emergence of this buffer zone provides the basis for the formation of a security framework that involves advancing endogenous initiatives in line with the perceptions and interests of regional governments.

This security framework rejects any unconstructive transregional intervention and emphasizes the endogenous capacity of regional countries to solve challenges between them. Unlike similar plans such as the Deal of the Century and the Gulf Cooperation Council plan, this framework is a comprehensive regional initiative that takes into account the interests of regional countries and transregional powers.

The formation of a joint counterterrorism force, Iran and Iraq’s vanguard and leadership in supporting the Palestinian cause and confronting the Zionist regime, utilizing each other’s diplomatic capacity, and moving towards a collective deterrence initiative are among the most important capacities for the increasing convergence of Iran and Iraq within the framework of collective regional security, relying on the bilateral security cooperation of the two countries.

Establishing a platform for joint security cooperation between the parties not only contributes significantly to enhancing regional security, but also regulates the security relations of the two countries at the state level. Despite the security cooperation and achievements of Tehran and Baghdad over the past two decades, such as the fight against the US occupation and the fight against ISIS terrorism, Tehran’s security relations with Iraq have been limited to non-state entities and resistance groups, and the transformation of bilateral cooperation and its role in shaping regional relations requires its elevation to state-centered security relations.

In any case, what seems clear and certain is that relations between Iran and Iraq are not limited to bilateral relations between the parties, but are considered the center of the formation of regional balance, and the prudent regulation of these relations can turn them into the axis of the formation of regional peace and security.