The Vice President of the Iranian Economic Association, while examining the possibility of achieving 8% growth in the Iranian economy in the Seventh Development Plan, pointed out the challenges facing the country's economy in financing this economic growth.
According to Ashura News, quoted by Mehr News Agency, Farshad Parvizian, Vice President of the Iranian Economic Association, in an exclusive interview with this agency, discussed the possibility of achieving 8 percent growth in the Iranian economy in the Seventh Development Plan. Referring to the challenges facing the country's economy, he emphasized that it is impossible to achieve this goal without providing the necessary financial resources.
8 percent growth; a dream or a reality?
Parvizian initially answered the question of whether 8 percent growth is possible for the Iranian economy. He said: Economic growth occurs when investment is made. Without investment, economic growth cannot be achieved. Based on the calculations, we need $200 billion in investment to achieve 8 percent growth. This figure has also been announced by the parliament, the president, and other officials.
The economic analyst continued: Therefore, achieving 8 percent growth requires investment, and investment also requires financial resources. But the main question is where these resources will come from? Obviously, there is no other way but to sell oil, export non-oil, attract foreign investment or use domestic resources.
Current status of financial resources
Referring to the current state of the Iranian economy, he added: If we look at the issue realistically, we are currently facing difficulties even in meeting the country's normal needs. The increase in the dollar rate to more than 90 thousand tomans and the problems in securing financial resources show that we are not in a position to easily secure 200 billion dollars for investment. Therefore, how can we expect 8% growth to be achieved?
Prerequisites for 8% growth
Referring to the historical experience of the Iranian economy, Parvizian said: In the past five decades, the average economic growth of Iran has not reached 8% even in the best of circumstances. In some exceptional and non-repeated cases, such growth has occurred, but on average, our economic growth has been 4 to 5% in the best of circumstances. In the past ten years, economic growth has been close to zero or even negative. So, how can we achieve 8 percent growth by continuing this trend?
Ideals versus realities
The economist continued: If we want to look at the issue optimistically, there are two main issues. First, why is this 8 percent growth figure included in the plans? Is it an ideal or a realistic goal? Since the Third and Fourth Development Plans, 8 percent growth has always been seen in the plans, but it has not been achieved in practice. This shows that we pay more attention to our ideals and desires than to economic realities.
Experience of other countries
Referring to the experience of countries like China, Parvizian said: The fundamental question is whether there are countries that have experienced such growth? Yes. China has had double-digit economic growth (above 10 percent) for more than 15 years. This shows that achieving such growth is not impossible. Iran itself experienced 12 percent growth in the year the JCPOA was signed. Of course, my goal is not to link this solely to the JCPOA, but rather to say that such growth is possible. There are other countries that have experienced double-digit economic growth for more than 15 years.
Need for investment and financial resources
He emphasized: To achieve 8 percent growth, we need investment. But the question is, where will this capital come from? Are there the necessary resources for this investment? In a country whose Minister of Economy announces in parliament that if the Tax Administration does not work for a day, the government cannot pay its employees, how can we expect the necessary resources to be provided for investment? If such resources existed, would we be facing problems such as electricity and gas shortages today?
Current Challenges of Iran's Economy
Referring to the current challenges of Iran's economy, Parvizian said: We are still facing problems in meeting our $6 billion debt. This is while previously there was talk of $7 billion and it was claimed that this amount was received from Korea. But the loss of opportunity and the passage of time destroyed $1 billion of it, and now we cannot even use the $6 billion that is blocked in Qatar, and the matter has reached the point of consultation and complaint of the Supreme Leader to the Emir of Qatar. Now how can we expect that $200 billion will be provided for investment?
Political solution instead of economic
He continued: In general, the country's economic problems currently do not have an economic solution, but rather require political solutions. Politicians should be asked whether these problems are solvable or not. What measures are currently appropriate should be examined by politicians.
In another part of the conversation, Parvizian criticized non-specialist comments in the field of economics and said: Unfortunately, in many cases, the opinions presented in the name of Islamic economics are actually communist economic ideas. Some people who consider themselves Muslims do not realize that these opinions are communist and it is not right to promote such opinions in the name of Islam.
He noted: In the field of economics, we should not ask for opinions from every individual. This action amounts to betrayal of the people and their livelihoods. Don't the media realize this? How is it that they do not ask for opinions from non-specialists for medical issues such as blood pressure control, but ask for opinions from people who do not specialize in economics for economic issues such as inflation and people's livelihoods?
Parvizian concluded by emphasizing that achieving 8 percent growth in the Iranian economy is not possible without providing the necessary financial resources and changing political and economic approaches.
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