A victory in Ukraine could well push the US president to take action in Gaza and make him take negotiations related to acquiring Canada or Greenland seriously.
According to Ashura News, quoted by News Online, Paul Rogers wrote in Open Democracy: Donald Trump’s team has had four years to prepare for his second term, and it has started in full force with a raft of executive orders and hiring and firing ideas, all focused on making America strong again.
On the global stage, Trump’s main focus has been on working with some of the world’s most prominent autocrats and oligarchs, in the hope that they can help the United States become richer at all costs. While previous US presidents have never shied away from engaging with questionable governments (after all, it is well known in Western diplomatic circles that dealing with autocrats is often much easier than dealing with troubled democracies), Trump’s approach is still a long way from Joe Biden or Barack Obama. This is partly because the Trump administration is testing how far and how fast it can go.
This is especially true in Ukraine, where Trump has ordered an immediate halt to U.S. arms deliveries and a withdrawal from intelligence sharing. Early signs suggest that Trump will succeed in forcing an end to the war on his and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s terms, with European countries unlikely to change the plan.
Such success would likely embolden Trump and his men to play a similar role in Gaza. The U.S. president has already begun talks with Hamas over the Israeli-American hostages, warning the group that they will pay a price if they and other hostages are not released immediately.
Benjamin Netanyahu may be unhappy that Trump is directly engaging with Hamas, but he will be pleased by the prospect of that war ending on terms he and Trump set. In this case, that means the widespread ethnic cleansing of the Gaza population, which Trump has vowed to deport to neighboring countries. The ongoing violent repression of Palestinians across much of the occupied West Bank by the Israeli Defense Forces would also be among the conditions.
Victory in Ukraine and Gaza will undoubtedly make Trump think about expanding the US borders to Canada and Greenland. It may seem like a distant goal to take over these two territories, but senior Canadian foreign ministry officials have reported that their counterparts in the US State Department are seriously considering how to implement these ideas.
Meanwhile, things seem to be going well for Trump on the domestic front. Trade sanctions against Canada, China and Mexico are in place, with more on the way. His annual State of the Union address was met with a rapturous reception from Republican members of Congress. And his billionaire ally, Elon Musk, continues to exert his influence over federal bureaucracies, laying off thousands of employees without much regard for the vast amount of experience that is being lost in the process.
Of course, Trump has had his share of setbacks. Some powerful government departments have resisted staff cuts, inflation is rising, trade uncertainty is weighing on the dollar, and some key decisions have been overturned by the courts. But none of these issues have been major so far, and some adjustments are underway to address them.
Overall, things are looking optimistically good for Trump. For many Western European governments, however, the US president is creating political turmoil that will continue. For so-called left-leaning governments like Britain, the situation will be exacerbated by deep concern and discontent with what is unfolding among progressive elements of society.
British Prime Minister Starmer has abandoned his initial claims of building a green future with focused investment in renewable energy. Instead, his government’s emphasis is on expanding the military-industrial complex. Much of this is being funded by sharp cuts to foreign aid, which, even with its flaws, was seen as a sign of relatively progressive statesmanship.
More bluntly, the British government has adopted a policy of turning plowshares into swords, a policy that would certainly have been criticized if it had been proposed by the opposition, and which already seems incredible to many of the party’s former supporters. This is while Starmer’s continued support for Israel, despite the crimes committed against the Palestinian people, and the ongoing and multifaceted suppression of protests in Britain.
In these circumstances, how can we respond to people with progressive views whose feelings about the government’s actions range from discouragement to outright depression? There are thought to be millions of such people in Britain, and many more elsewhere in the world.
Even at this early stage, many progressive groups are doing good work to encourage the government to change its stance on climate and economic issues. Similarly, a network of UK-based organisations, academics and activists working for a just and peaceful world is trying to show that another way forward is possible on the defence front. Richard Reeve, the network’s coordinator, has just published a scathing analysis of the irrelevance of much of Britain’s international security policy, Bridge to Nowhere: Britain’s Security Strategy in the Ruins of Atlantis. He questions four assumptions about the UK’s current status – the US security guarantee, continued nuclear cooperation, technological superpower status and US/UK/Australian cooperation – and suggests thinking outside the box and suggesting what needs to be done.
There may not be enough answers yet, but these are all helpful pointers. At a personal level, we need to stick to what we know for ourselves, whether it’s about war and peace, inequality, climate change or other forms of progress that are under threat. These ideals are being challenged by the likes of Trump and the world’s oligarchies, and we need to remain confident that there are much better ways forward, and to challenge the status quo at every opportunity.
*Paul Rogers is Distinguished Professor of Peace Studies in the Department of Peace Studies and International Relations at the University of Bradford and an Honorary Fellow of the Joint Service Command and Staff College. He is the International Security Reporter for Open Democracy.
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